How good of a chance do Mike Tomlin and the rest of the coaches in the NFL have of making it 24 seasons like Bill Belichick?
Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, John Harbaugh
Following a whirlwind 24-hour window where both Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll and New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick were relieved of their duties, the NFL’s list of longest-tenured head coaches has been shaken up a bit. Below is the list of all coaches currently in the league — because of the many shake-ups of Black Monday, not all teams have filled their vacancies — and for each coach, I’ll be revealing their credentials and then evaluating the likelihood that they’ll remain employed by their current team for 24 years, as Belichick was in New England.
- Mike Tomlin (17 seasons in Pittsburgh)
Record: 173-100-2 … 8-9 in Playoffs … 7 division titles … 1-1 record in Super Bowl
Chances of reaching 24 seasons with the Steelers: If there wasn’t already (downright ridiculous) chatter that his job may not be so safe, I’d give Mike Tomlin the best chances of reaching 24 seasons with his current team. After all, the man has been a head coach in the NFL for 17 seasons, and he’s never once finished a season with a losing record. I’m almost positive that we’ll never see that again. Despite the speculation that the Steelers and Mike Tomlin could part ways, what does work in his favor is that since 1969, Tomlin is one of only three men who have coached the Pittsburgh Steelers — Chuck Noll for 23 years, Bill Cowher for 15 years, and Mike Tomlin for 17. Even though he should, I don’t see Tomlin matching Noll’s number or Belichick’s, but because he’s only seven years off, we can’t totally discount Mike Tomlin here … 44.4 percent chance
- John Harbaugh (16 seasons in Baltimore)
Record: 160-99 … 11-9 in Playoffs … 5 division titles … 1-0 record in Super Bowl
Chances of reaching 24 seasons with the Ravens: In my mind, Harbaugh feels like the safest bet of any coach currently in the league to get to 24 seasons. He’s only 61 years old and just eight years shy of reaching 24 with the Ravens. Just as is the case in Pittsburgh, ownership is solid and there’s not a long track record of coaching instability. If Harbaugh could lead the Ravens, the AFC’s #1 seed, to the second Super Bowl of his tenure, it feels like that would buy him at least another five years. I think Harbaugh is the best bet here … 47.9 percent chance
- Andy Reid (11 seasons in Kansas City)
Record: 128-51 … 12-7 in Playoffs … 8 division titles … 2-1 record in Super Bowl
Chances of reaching 24 years with Chiefs: As long as Patrick Mahomes remains in Kansas City, it’s hard to imagine that the Chiefs would be in a position where they’d willingly move on from Andy Reid. However, Andy Reid is already 65 years old, meaning he would need to coach into his late 70s to get to 24 seasons with Kansas City, and there have already been rumblings in the past that he’d be ready to retire. But let’s acknowledge the fact that even if Reid doesn’t coach another 13 seasons in Kansas City, there’s still a decent chance that he’ll eventually catch Belichick on the all-time wins list. As things stand right now, Belichick is 44 regular season wins ahead of Andy Reid. Reid, who won 130 games in Philadelphia in addition to the 128 he’s won in Kansas City, is already fourth on the all-time wins list … 3.7 percent chance
- (tie) Sean McDermott (7 seasons in Buffalo)
Record: 73-41 … 4-5 in Playoffs … 4 division titles
Chances of reaching 24 years with Bills: With Ken Dorsey already having been ousted mid-season, that leaves Sean McDermott as the next fall guy in Buffalo. There’s a world where the Bills are upset by the Steelers in the Wild Card round this Sunday and McDermott is gone no more than 24 hours later. I don’t see that happening, and if I had to make a pick, I’m pick the Bills to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year. But things have already been tumultuous enough in Western New York that in all likelihood, McDermott probably doesn’t even get to a decade in Buffalo unless the Bills win a Super Bowl in the next two seasons … 5.2 percent chance
- (tie) Sean McVay (7 seasons in Los Angeles)
Record: 70-45 … 7-3 in Playoffs … 3 division titles … 1-1 record in Super Bowl
Chances of reaching 24 years with the Rams: If McVay hadn’t already publicly acknowledged that he’s contemplated retirement, he’s another one, along with Tomlin and Harbaugh, who I could seriously see reaching the 24-year mark. McVay started in Los Angeles as a 31-year-old, meaning he would reach that 24-year mark at just 55 years old. But there are multiple blank checks just waiting to be endorsed by Sean McVay as soon as he’s ready to leave Los Angeles, join the announce booth, and become the next John Madden … 17.9 percent chance
- (tie) Kyle Shanahan (7 seasons in San Francisco)
Record: 64-51 … 6-3 in Playoffs … 3 division titles … 0-1 record in Super Bowl
Chances of reaching 24 years with the 49ers: Like McVay, Shanahan is young (44), has had plenty of early success, the NFL is in his blood, and he is very popular among his team’s fanbase. But he finds himself in the unenviable position of coaching a team with so much talent offensively, that if the 49ers continue to fall just short of expectations, at some point, Shanahan could be the one who takes the blame … 18.1 percent chance
- (tie) Matt LaFleur (5 seasons in Green Bay)
Record: 56-27 … 2-3 in Playoffs … 3 division titles
Chances of reaching 24 years with the Packers: Let me just tell ya, as a Chicago Bears fan, it’s going to make me so goddamn mad if Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love dominate the NFC North for the next decade and a half. I’m already angry about it … 19.2 percent chance
- (tie) Zac Taylor (5 seasons in Cincinnati)
Record: 37-44-1 … 5-2 in Playoffs … 2 division titles … 0-1 record in Super Bowl
Chances of reaching 24 years with Bengals: It doesn’t help Zac Taylor’s case that his NFL obituary was already written after Joe Burrow’s rookie season. Then the Bengals improbably made the Super Bowl, coming up 3 points short of what would’ve been the most shocking championship in modern NFL history, and suddenly Taylor was given a clean bill of health. Given Joe Burrow’s injury-plagued 2023 season, I don’t see the Bengals pinning the lack of a postseason berth on Taylor this year, but if he doesn’t get Cincinnati back to — or at least close to — the promised land once again, Taylor’s time could soon be up … 5.5 percent chance
- (tie) Mike McCarthy (4 seasons in Dallas)
Record: 42-25 … 1-2 in Playoffs … 2 division titles
Chances of reaching 24 years with Cowboys: I would say there’s a better chance of Bill Belichick being named head coach of the Dallas Cowboys in the next 20 days than there is of Mike McCarthy lasting another 20 years in Dallas … 1.3 percent chance
Could we see a Jerry Jones, and Bill Belichick partnership with the Dallas Cowboys?
- (tie) Kevin Stefanski (4 seasons in Cleveland)
Record: 37-30 record … 1-1 in Playoffs
Chances of reaching 24 years with Browns: If Stefanski can lead the Browns to a Super Bowl in the next three years, not only is there a decent enough chance that he can make it to 24 seasons with the Browns, but I’d say it’s likely that there will probably be a statue of Stefanski erected outside of Cleveland Browns stadium while he’s still coaching. But because it took the greatest basketball player who ever lived going supernova and leading a 3-1 comeback for the city of Cleveland to claim a pro sports championship, I just don’t see that happening. Even still, the 41-year-old Stefanski could wind up turning in a lengthy tenure with the Browns … 11.0 percent chance
- (tie) Nick Sirianni (3 seasons in Philadelphia)
Record: 34-17 … 2-2 in Playoffs … 1 division title … 0-1 record in Super Bowl
Chances of reaching 24 years with Eagles: Two months ago, Sirianni would’ve been one of the top choices to reach the 24-season mark, even though he’s only been the head coach of the Eagles for three years. The Eagles were 10-1, Sirianni’s career record was 33-11, and the Birds looked like they were flying toward another NFC East title. Then all hell broke loose in Philadelphia and now the Eagles could very well be bounced by the 9-8 Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. I don’t think Sirianni’s job is in any immediate danger, but the late-season slide has at least diminished his odds … 12.5 percent chance
- (tie) Dan Campbell (3 seasons in Detroit)
Record: 24-26-1 … 1 division title
Chances of reaching 24 years with Lions: The city of Detroit loved Dan Campbell even when the Lions were still making a habit of losing games, but now with Detroit winning and sitting atop the NFC North, it feels like Campbell may have as long of a leash as anyone else in the NFL. Of course, it’s Detroit, and if this success proves to be just a one-year blip on the radar, Campbell could wind up just like Jim Schwartz and Jim Caldwell… out in Detroit even after leading the Lions to rare postseason appearances. I think what Campbell’s built in Detroit could be long-lasting, all hinging on what the Lions do at quarterback whenever the time comes that they need to move on from Jared Goff … 9.0 percent chance
- (tie) Robert Saleh (3 seasons in New York)
Record: 18-33
Chances of reaching 24 years with Jets: There’s as good of a chance that I reach 24 years as the head coach of the New York Jets as there is that Robert Saleh does, and for the record, that’s more of an indictment of the New York Jets than it is Robert Saleh … 0.6 percent chance
- (tie) Kevin O’Connell (2 seasons in Minnesota)
Record: 20-14 … 0-1 in Playoffs … 1 division title
- (tie) Mike McDaniel (2 seasons in Miami)
Record: 20-14 … 0-1 in Playoffs
Chances of reaching 24 years with Vikings/Dolphins: Two first-time head coaches with identical records, and therefore, identical odds of making it 24 years with their current team. Two of the best young coaches in the league, in my humble opinion … 10.0 percent chance
- (tie) Doug Pederson (2 seasons in Jacksonville)
Record: 18-16 … 1-1 in Playoffs … 1 division title
- (tie) Todd Bowles (2 seasons in Tampa Bay)
Record: 17-17 … 0-1 in Playoffs … 2 division titles
- (tie) Dennis Allen (2 seasons in New Orleans)
Record: 16-18 record
Chances of reaching 24 years with Jaguars/Buccaneers/Saints: Three second-chance head coaches with nearly identical records, and therefore, identical odds of making it 24 years with their current team. Three of the most mediocre coaches in the league, in my humble opinion … 1.3 percent chance
