The Atlanta Braves expect a tonne of bombs from the top of their lineup
With 307 long balls launched, the 2023 Atlanta Braves equaled the 2019 Minnesota Twins for the most home runs in a single MLB season.
In 2024, they are expected to be much better.
Matt Olson and Ronald Acuña Jr. are two players on MLB.com’s list of players who might lead the league in home runs this coming season. Both players are considered power threats who could set new records for home runs this season.
Ronald ranked third on the list, one spot ahead of designated hitter Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers and outfielder Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees. Olson came in fourth.
In MLB.com’s instance, Acuña’s main argument was that, despite hitting 41 home runs in each of his two healthiest seasons (2023 and 2019), he underperformed.
Ronald concluded with “only” 41 home runs last year, a conversion percentage of 47.7%, despite hitting thirteen more barrels last year—a “batted ball event” at the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle to produce a home run than everyone else in baseball.
Infographic on Major League Baseball’s barrel rate
The broader the launch angle the BBE may have and yet be classified as a barrel, the harder the batted ball event. A barrel’s BBE at 98 mph is confined to a small range of 26 to 30 degrees, but its BBE at 116 mph may range from eight to 50 degrees.
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Major League Baseball
Ronald’s 86 barrels led all of baseball, with a max exit velocity in those coming out to a league-leading 121.2 mph, but he underperformed the expected home run production off of those balls. Per research from fantasy baseball site PitcherList, a typical barrel-to-home-run conversion rate is just shy of 60%, and so standard power production for Ronald off of 86 barrels would have been 51 or 52 homers instead of his 41.
Honestly, I’m not sure why there’s an underperformance here other than “small sample size shenanigans” – Truist Park plays as a hitter’s park for home run production, coming in 9th for homer-park factors at 109, 9% more homer-prone than the “average” ballpark.
Matt Olson is thanks to continued improvement and a lineup change
Olson’s amazing 2023 production of a league-leading 54 homers (which was a team single-season record) owes to improved metrics behind his shots – career bests in barrel rate of 16.4% and hard hit rate of 55.5%.
So projecting Olson to lead all of baseball in home runs in 2024 assumes that he continues that improvement and thrives from the cleanup spot in the lineup, which saw him perform dramatically better than when he was in 2nd behind Ronald:
Matt Olson’s performance in the 2-hole vs cleanup
If Olson maintained his 10.2% HR percentage and played clean-up the entire season, it would translate into 62 home runs.
Furthermore, according to MLB.com, Olson’s ceiling is really to “be the first NL player to hit more than 60 homers in a season since Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001” rather than “lead the league in homers”.
High appreciation for the first baseman for the Braves.
Which Braves slugger—Acuña, Olson, or someone else not on this list—would you want to lead the league in home runs? Inform us!
