To coincide with ESPN’s ranking of the top 100 baseball players for 2024, I’m guessing who will be the next players from each team to join our MLB Rank list.
For the most part, this implies they will make the top 100 list for the 2025 or 2026 season, as every team’s players will move in and out of contention each year. It sounds foolish to project a minor leaguer who is years away from making the majors, but there are times when a prospect makes sense as my pick.
National League
Atlanta Braves
A.J. Smith-Shawver, RHP
According to FanGraphs, 89 players had 3.0 WAR or greater in 2023, so that’s a realistic line to draw when projecting who will make this list. It’s crucial to emphasise that this doesn’t mean having a three-win season, but rather being viewed as a three-win talent in the future, which are two very different things. Only a few relievers can achieve this leverage-adjusted level of performance (four on this year’s list), and even fewer are expected to repeat it. The same is true for players with more limited physical tools. Here’s my 2024 top 100 prospects list, which includes some of the more obscure names.
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez, C
Alvarez is an obvious choice here, as the 22-year-old smashed 25 home runs as a rookie in 2023 while playing the most important position on the field. If he can raise his on-base percentage above.300 and continue to improve behind the plate, he may easily become a perennial All-Star. Two prospects (Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert), a recently graduated prospect (Brett Baty), and a veteran (Jeff McNeil) are all viable contenders.
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryson Stott, 2B
Stott had 3.9 WAR last season, putting him in the top 100 players in baseball by WAR, but our voters remained sceptical. His defensive stats at second base improved in 2023 after spending the majority of his professional career at shortstop, and he was also slightly ball-in-play fortunate at the plate. Having said that, he’s 26 years old and should be able to produce 3-ish WAR again. Brandon Marsh and Christopher Sanchez are both strong chances to advance, while Andrew Painter is skilled enough to make the list if he can pitch in the majors this season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Miami Marlins
Jake Burger, 3B
Sandy Alcantara had a subpar season in 2023 after winning the Cy Young in 2022, but he will miss all of 2024 while recovering from elbow surgery, therefore he is unlikely to make the 2024 list because he will not throw between now and then. A.J. Puk and Edward Cabrera are both strong candidates for a step forward in 2024, but Burger was on the verge of a 3.0 WAR season in 2023. Furthermore, the Marlins lack a strong prospect pipeline that combines big league readiness and upside.
Washington Nationals
James Wood, RF
Wood is having a strong March after demonstrating great talent over the previous two seasons, which led me to rate him the 11th best prospect in baseball in January. He has star potential, but he may need more experience, or simply patience, before everything clicks in the big leagues. I believe the same is true with last year’s second-round choice Dylan Crews (fifth on my list of top 100 prospects), however the Nationals aren’t hesitant about elevating young talents to The Show. CJ Abrams is the top returning big leaguer for this award, having had a strong year in 2023 but needing to take one more big step forward to be considered.
Chicago Cubs
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
I’m shocked Ian Happ didn’t make this year’s list after putting up 3.5 and 3.6 WAR in his previous two seasons. He’s already 29 years old and playing on a $61 million contract extension, so he doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate to make enough of an impact on voters’ minds next season. Crow-Armstrong, baseball’s 18th-ranked prospect, has a greater chance, but the risk is that in his rookie year, he’ll be a defensive-minded centre fielder similar to Cristian Pache rather than Michael Harris II. Seiya Suzuki is another seasoned candidate for this, while rookies/prospects Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie all have a chance to create the splash required to be on the next.
Cincinnati Reds
Matt McLain, 2B
The Reds’ relatively young core has a number of possibilities to join Elly De La Cruz on next year’s list, but I’ll go with McLain, who already had 3.2 WAR in 89 games last year and is expected to produce a similar WAR figure this season. Pitching candidates include Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Alexis Diaz, and prospect Connor Phillips. Prior to his positive PED test and subsequent 80-game suspension, Noelvi Marte would have been right alongside McLain as a prime candidate to make the transition.
Milwaukee Brewers
Jackson Chourio, CF
Whether he produces impressive numbers as a rookie or not, the Brewers have decided that Chourio will be a standout player for them for years to come, signing him to an eight-year contract in December. He has played six games above Double-A and zero in the major levels, so it may not happen right away, but I am convinced Chourio will emerge as a standout soon enough. There are plenty of solid possibilities in the organisation, including returning big leaguers William Contreras, Sal Frelick, and Freddy Peralta, as well as prospects Jeferson Quero and Jacob Misiorowski.
The Pirates have three solid candidates: Henry Davis, Paul Skenes, and Keller, as well as two dark horses: Jared Jones and David Bednar. Davis, a former No. 1 overall pick, is indicating that this could be his breakout season. Skenes, the top pick in last year’s draft, is the best-drafted pitching prospect in over a decade and is expected to make his major league debut this season.
