Ranking top QBs from 2020-2024 draft classes: Here’s how Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud and others stack up

How do C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams compare to Justin Herbert and Drake Maye? Rank five quarterback draft classes together.

How would C.J. Stroud compare to Caleb Williams? What if we included Jordan Love or Will Levis in the mix? How about Drake Maye, Anthony Richardson, and Jalen Hurts?

Although these questions are about the same position, this activity is analogous to comparing apples, oranges, and grapes. There is no perfect way to rank a group of players from both the NFL and colleges.

Based on what we’ve seen in the first four years of the NFL from the famed 2020 quarterback group, the first three seasons from the 2021 quarterback class, the down 2022 collection, the rookie seasons from Stroud and Co., and projecting the 2024 class forward, here’s how I’d rank the passers from 2020 to 2024.

In terms of how these rankings are created, I’m comparing across levels using all we know about each quarterback’s talent today and what they’ve demonstrated on the field thus far. Of course, even an average season in the NFL is far more difficult than an outstanding collegiate season. But, for the purposes of this essay, the 2024 quarterbacks are ranked primarily based on how much individual success I feel they will have in the pros given their talent and overall skill sets. These rankings are also heavily based on projections of future NFL success.

1. Joe Burrow, Bengals

I’m not going to fall victim to recency bias and lower Burrow far down this list simply because he didn’t play late in 2023 due to a hand injury. However, if Tee Higgins had left in free agency, I would most likely have followed. But he’s back. So is Ja’Marr Chase, and Cincinnati’s pro personnel department assisted in retooling the offensive line’s right side. Jonah Williams, a first-round failure, has been released. Trent Brown takes his position, with the equally enormous Orlando Brown at right tackle.

Burrow isn’t as athletic as some of the other quarterbacks on this list, but he possesses ChatGPT processing speed and thread-the-needle accuracy. Plus, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo hasn’t left, so the Bengals should remain one of the league’s most balanced teams.

2. Jordan Love, Packers

Love gradually developed into one of the NFL’s brightest young quarterbacks. And take a moment to consider the brilliance around him. Green Bay is youthful and loaded, and there were a few fluky plays from their NFC title game a few months back.

Their coach is about as effective as a new head coach can be at his first stop, and the general manager has demonstrated the ability to select well and strike the proper chord with a methodical approach to free agency.

However, this high ranking is due to more than just the situation. Love is also a remarkable talent, and I’m surprised we haven’t heard more Love parallels for Caleb Williams during this selection process, given that Love did some amazingly imaginative things at Utah State. He can locate receivers in perilous situations from any arm angle, but it appeared like his game stagnated in 2023 when it came to understanding coverages. Look for love in Green Bay.

3. C.J. Stroud, Texans

Stroud had a spectacular first season. Runaway offensive rookie of the year. Well deserved. And he would have deserved the honour in any of the previous ten years, if not more. Remember last year’s draft season, when we all wondered if he was athletic enough to be inventive when his protection failed him? It turns out he is. In the first year of Bobby Slowik’s offence, Stroud made some of his most stunning plays outside the pocket. The surgical accuracy was also evident inside the pocket.

The only reason Stroud isn’t higher is that he’s expected to regress in the interception department. Last season, his turnover-worthy play rate was 2.9%, resulting in only five interceptions. Mahomes had the same rate but had 14 selections. Josh Allen’s TWP was 3.0%, with 18 interceptions.

Aside from that, I’m incredibly excited to see how the rest of the roster-building process unfolds around Stroud, especially after seeing what his presence accomplished for Nico Collins and fellow rookie sensation Tank Dell.

4. Drake Maye, North Carolina

Maye is a real baller. Big throws. Ad-libbing. Running as needed. Running when it’s simply a way to gain the numerical edge on defence. Maye can handle it everything. And, while I acknowledge that the North Carolina offence looks straightforward and basic, what collegiate offence doesn’t?

The only reason Stroud is not ranked higher is that he is likely to regress in interceptions. Last season, his turnover-worthy play rate was 2.9%, with only five interceptions. Mahomes had the same rate but made 14 selections. Josh Allen’s TWP was 3.0 percent, with 18 interceptions.

Aside from that, I’m very interested to watch how the rest of the roster-building process unfolds around Stroud, especially given what his presence has done for Nico Collins and fellow rookie sensation Tank Dell.